In secretly recorded remarks to lobbyists, Paxton said Washington runs his campaign and “mandatory spending” has to be cut

What happened

On Sept. 24, 2026, Paxton attended a lunch on Capitol Hill hosted by lobbyists at the Washington firm Williams & Jensen, with about a dozen attendees, mostly lobbyists. An attendee who opposes his campaign recorded it, and two other attendees confirmed details to the Texas Tribune. ⁰¹

Five news organizations published clips. In one, Paxton said, “I’ve never been in a race where I felt less control over the campaign.” ^{03 04} In another, he said the Republican midterm convention in Dallas “dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped.” ^{02 04} In a third, he blamed the war and fuel prices: “It’s not tariffs … it’s the war, it’s gas prices, it’s diesel.” ⁰⁴

On the deficit, Paxton said: “Making some reasonable cuts to mandatory spending — you’re gonna have to do it,” and “We have to suck it up.” He did not name programs. According to the Congressional Budget Office, about three-quarters of mandatory federal spending goes to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. ⁰¹

In a clip published by CNN, Paxton said Cornyn “wants me to lose” and described a restaurant conversation in which Cornyn supposedly said, “Paxton’s gonna lose.” Cornyn’s spokesperson said the conversation did not happen, and longtime Cornyn strategist Rob Jesmer said, “If Senator Cornyn wanted Ken to lose, I can assure you he’d be more active in the campaign.” ⁰⁴

Why it matters

In private, to lobbyists, Paxton described cuts to the programs that make up most mandatory spending. In public, his campaign has promised to protect Social Security. ^{01 05}

His account of Cornyn was disputed by Cornyn’s own team. ⁰⁴

What the sources show

The audio was recorded by an attendee opposed to Paxton and provided to reporters; the Texas Tribune confirmed details with two other attendees. Paxton’s campaign has not disputed that the recordings are of him. ^{01 06}